By Prince Salako Lukman Olamilekan

As the 2024 local government elections in Kwara State approach, with elections slated for September 21, all eyes are on Offa Local Government, the only one being broadcast live on Channels TV. Why is this election drawing so much attention? What makes Offa different from the other 15 local governments in Kwara State? Is this simply a contest between political parties, or does it signify a deeper struggle between the masses and political elites?

The dynamics of Offa’s political environment are complex, shaped by historical trends, opinion polls, and the influence of powerful local figures. As we dive into this analysis, the broader question remains: can the PDP capitalize on the discontent among the masses, or will the APC’s established political structure hold firm?

Opinion Polls, Expert Views, and Voting Behavior

In every election, three factors play a crucial role: opinion polls, expert views, and voting behavior based on historical trends.

Opinion Polls

According to recent opinion polls, the PDP candidate in Offa is leading with 62% of the projected vote, followed by the APC at 27%, and the Accord Party trailing at 11%. These numbers reflect a significant shift in public sentiment, driven by dissatisfaction with the current government and a lack of meaningful projects in Offa over the past five years.

Expert Views

Experts are divided. While some analysts lean towards the PDP due to the overwhelming public support, others favor the APC, citing the power of incumbency and the party’s entrenched political structure in Kwara State. Historically, incumbents tend to have the upper hand, especially in local elections where party structures and patronage systems play a decisive role.

Voting Behavior (Historical Trend)

Offa’s historical voting behavior has always been intriguing. Traditionally, Offa aligns with opposition parties, a trend that continued until 2019 when the town aligned with the state government. However, this shift did not bring the expected benefits. Instead, Offa stakeholders felt marginalized, with key figures like Hon. Prince Saheed Popoola and Hon. Tajudeen Aro (both former Offa LGA chairmen) being suspended from the state assembly and party leadership positions. This exclusion has left many Offa politicians and their supporters feeling alienated.

The Discontent: Marginalization and Broken Promises

One of the central themes of the upcoming election is the growing frustration among party stakeholders who feel sidelined by the APC-led government. In the 2019 and 2023 elections, many loyal supporters of the APC were promised key appointments at the local government level. However, despite winning the elections, these promises were left unfulfilled. For instance, Offa had been without a local government election for five years, further frustrating stakeholders who had invested heavily in the party.

When state appointments were finally made, only one individual from Offa benefited significantly, securing four appointments: Commissioner for Water, Commissioner for Energy, *Commissioner for Enterprise, and Special Adviser on Political Affairs to the state government. This concentration of power in one individual has led to deep resentment among other party loyalists who feel they were betrayed. With no significant local government elections in the past five years, many had pinned their hopes on appointments or councilor positions, only to be overlooked again.

The recent primary elections for the upcoming local government election added fuel to the fire. The same individual who had dominated appointments emerged as the favored candidate for the position of chairman, sidelining many others who had campaigned tirelessly for years. This has led to a massive revolt within the APC, with key stakeholders switching their allegiance to the PDP in protest.

The Role of Philanthropists and Local Influencers

In Offa, local philanthropists wield significant influence over political outcomes. Among them is Muhyideen Okunlola Kayode (MOK), popularly known as the “Angel of Owode Market.” MOK, who has deep roots in Offa, declared open support for the PDP candidate, further bolstering the opposition’s chances. His influence, especially in Owode, the second-largest market in Kwara State, is critical.

Another notable figure, Asiwaju of Offa, whom President Bola Tinubu has referred to as his “Landlord” in Ikeja, also threw his weight behind the PDP. The backing of these influential figures reflects the growing dissatisfaction with the APC and could significantly impact the outcome of the election.

Hon. Prince Saheed Popoola: A Decisive Force

One of the most prominent forces in Offa politics is Hon. Prince Saheed Popoola, the first person to contest and win an election in Offa under the umbrella of the APC. His influence in Offa politics cannot be understated. Despite being suspended from the state assembly in 2019, Popoola remains a significant player. His decision to publicly endorse the PDP candidate and join their mega rally is a game-changer. Popoola has a strong track record of winning elections in Offa, often against formidable opposition, and his support for the PDP could be the final push they need to secure victory.

The suspension of key figures like Popoola and Hon. Tajudeen Aro, the longest-serving APC Public Relations Officer in Kwara State and a former Offa LGA chairman, has also left many within the APC feeling betrayed. These leaders, with their deep roots and strong support bases, are determined to fight back and prove their relevance by backing the PDP.

The Mega Rally and Public Sentiment

A recent mega rally held on September 19, 2024, showcased the growing support for the PDP. With a significantly larger turnout than the APC rally, the PDP’s momentum is undeniable. While the APC event attracted notable political bigwigs like Hon. Dr. Mrs. Farida Dankaka, the chairman of the Federal Character Commission, and Senator Lola Ashiru, the deputy leader of the Senate, it failed to match the sheer numbers and enthusiasm seen at the PDP event.

This trend mirrors the dynamics of the 2023 presidential election, where Peter Obi of the Labour Party dominated opinion polls and social media, but lacked the established political structure to convert that support into votes. Similarly, the PDP in Offa enjoys strong online support and an energized base, but it also has an established political structure, giving it a significant advantage over the APC in this election.

Conclusion: The Struggle Between the Masses and the Political Elites

The upcoming local government election in Offa is shaping up to be a landmark event. It represents not just a contest between political parties, but a larger struggle between the masses—disillusioned with the state government—and the political elites. With key figures like Hon. Prince Saheed Popoola and influential philanthropists supporting the PDP, and the widespread discontent among APC stakeholders, the PDP is well-positioned to win.

The election, broadcast live as “Offa Decides,” is expected to set a precedent in local government elections in Kwara State. Based on current indicators, the PDP holds a 60% chance of winning, with the APC trailing at 38%, and the Accord Party at 2%. Should the Accord Party align with the PDP, this could shift the dynamics to 55% for the PDP and 45% for the APC.

As Offa heads to the polls on September 21, 2024, the stakes are high. Will the masses prevail, or will the entrenched political elites retain control? The outcome of this election will offer valuable lessons for future contests in Kwara State and beyond.